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Mainz vs Werder Bremen

Fri 23 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 7 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Mainz win: 51.4%

Draw: 23.7%

Werder Bremen win: 25.0%

Predicted: Mainz

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 56.2%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 58.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.77

More corners: Mainz (62.3% home / 37.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Mainz

Yes

Probability Mainz wins or draws: 66.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Mainz Clearest lean of the available outcomes (51% vs next-best 25%). (51.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (56.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (59.0% model probability) High

Corners Mainz (more corners) (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Mainz win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.